If solar revenues are rising, will my feed-in tariff go up?

Not necessarily. Wholesale market conditions influence what retailers can offer over time, but feed-in tariffs are set by retailers (within regulatory floors in some states) and tend to move slowly. Rising wholesale solar revenues in certain periods don't automatically translate to higher retail feed-in rates — in fact, the long-run trend has been downward as more solar floods daytime supply. The more important question is how to maximise self-consumption rather than export, which is where system sizing and battery storage come in.

Should I wait to see how gas prices and wholesale markets settle before going solar?

Waiting for market certainty is a reasonable instinct, but energy markets are unlikely to offer a clear 'all-clear' signal — there will always be moving parts. What we'd suggest instead is making a decision based on a robust range of scenarios: what does the system look like financially if feed-in tariffs fall further, if electricity prices rise, or if wholesale dynamics shift again? That kind of stress-tested analysis is what YSA works through with you, so the decision is grounded rather than speculative.

Does record heat affect whether solar panels are worth it?

High ambient temperatures can reduce panel output slightly compared to rated specifications — this is called the temperature coefficient effect. However, hotter weather also typically means more sunlight hours and higher household electricity demand (from cooling), which increases the value of self-generated power. On balance, solar remains well-suited to Australia's climate. The key is ensuring your system is sized and specified with your actual local conditions in mind, not just the rated figures on a spec sheet.

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Solar revenues hit a two-year high in October — what it means for homeowners

October 2026 saw large-scale solar revenues surge and gas generation slump to historic lows. Here's what it means for Australian homeowners considering solar or batteries.

Andrew TonkinLast reviewed 4 November 20265 min read

Short answer

October 2026 delivered a double signal for Australia's energy market: large-scale solar merchant revenues reached their highest point in two years, while gas-fired generation dropped to an all-time low on the main grid, according to RenewEconomy. For homeowners thinking about rooftop solar or a home battery, those two data points aren't just interesting headlines — they reflect structural changes in how electricity is priced and where the grid is heading.

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What actually happened in October

Large-scale solar farms across Australia's main grid recorded their strongest merchant revenue result in roughly two years during October 2026. That means the wholesale price signals coming through during sunny daytime hours were strong enough to lift overall returns significantly, even as the volume of solar generation continues to grow.

At the same time, gas-fired generation fell to an all-time low. Gas tends to set the marginal price of electricity during peak demand periods, so when it retreats, the shape of the wholesale price curve shifts. These two movements — more solar revenue, less gas — are connected, and they tell a story about where the grid is structurally heading over the next several years.

Why the wholesale market matters to rooftop owners

Most homeowners aren't selling electricity on the wholesale market directly — but the wholesale price shapes what retailers can afford to pay you as a feed-in tariff, and what they need to charge you for grid power. As large-scale solar dominates more daytime hours, midday wholesale prices can fall sharply (sometimes to near zero or negative), which is one reason feed-in tariff rates have trended downward in most states over recent years.

The October result is a reminder that the picture isn't uniformly gloomy for solar generation economics — there are periods where solar is genuinely scarce relative to demand, and prices respond accordingly. What it does underscore, though, is that the value of your rooftop solar increasingly depends on when you use it, not just how much you produce.

The gas angle: a quieter but important shift

Gas hitting an all-time generation low is significant because gas has historically been the system's backstop — the fuel that runs when solar and wind aren't covering demand. A structural retreat of gas means the grid is relying more on dispatchable renewables, big batteries and demand flexibility to fill those gaps.

For homeowners, this matters in two ways. First, if gas is less dominant in setting peak prices, the spikes that make time-of-use tariffs punishing may gradually moderate — though we wouldn't count on that relieving pressure on bills anytime soon. Second, it reinforces that large-scale storage and home batteries are becoming more economically central to the grid, not less. The investment signals flowing into Australian battery storage right now reflect exactly that shift.

Record heat adds urgency — and load — to the equation

October 2026 was also confirmed as the hottest October on record globally by Europe's Copernicus climate service, with 2026 tracking to be the second-warmest year since records began. In practical terms for Australian households, hotter months mean more air conditioning load, more demand on the grid, and bigger electricity bills — particularly for households without solar.

Heat also affects solar panel output in ways that aren't always intuitive. Panels are tested at a standard temperature, and in very high ambient heat, efficiency can dip slightly relative to rated output. That's not a reason to avoid solar — far from it — but it's one of the variables worth factoring in when sizing a system properly for your specific location and home.

What this means for your solar or battery decision

The October data reinforces a few things we consistently tell homeowners: the economics of solar and batteries are shifting faster than most people realise, and decisions made purely on today's tariff rates or today's feed-in tariff can quickly look different in two or three years. A battery that looks marginal today may look different once time-of-use pricing is mandatory in your state, or once gas's role in setting peak prices continues to shrink.

None of this means rushing a purchase. The right system size, the right battery chemistry, and the right tariff structure depend on your specific household — your roof, your usage pattern, your state's rebate eligibility, and your financial situation. That's exactly the kind of analysis we work through with homeowners at YSA before any hardware decisions are made.

Solar revenues hit a two-year high in October — what it means for homeowners

Short answer

What actually happened in October

Why the wholesale market matters to rooftop owners

The gas angle: a quieter but important shift

Record heat adds urgency — and load — to the equation

What this means for your solar or battery decision

Primary references used for this guide.

If solar revenues are rising, will my feed-in tariff go up?

Should I wait to see how gas prices and wholesale markets settle before going solar?

Does record heat affect whether solar panels are worth it?

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