Will lower wholesale electricity prices reduce my power bill?

Not automatically. Wholesale energy is only one part of your retail bill — network charges, levies and retailer margins make up the rest, and those have been rising in some states. The benefit is more likely to be felt indirectly over time, and more immediately by households on time-of-use tariffs who can shift loads to midday when solar generation is high.

Does this news change the case for adding a home battery?

It reinforces one key principle: the value of a battery is in shifting your own solar generation into the evening, reducing the amount of expensive grid power you buy after sunset. As feed-in tariffs for midday solar exports continue to fall, the relative advantage of storing energy rather than exporting it grows. Whether a battery is cost-effective for your home depends on your bill, your usage patterns and the installed cost — all things YSA can work through with you.

Is now a good time to install solar given the changing market?

The underlying case for rooftop solar — reducing what you buy from the grid at retail rates — remains sound, and the AEMO data suggests the grid is absorbing new solar capacity well. Federal and some state rebate programs are still available, though the discount steps down over time. The specifics of timing, system size and product quality matter considerably to the final payback period, which is why YSA assesses each household's situation individually rather than applying a one-size answer.

Industry news

Rooftop solar is driving wholesale power prices down — what it means for homeowners

AEMO's latest report shows 700 MW of new rooftop solar helped push June quarter wholesale prices to a 6-year low. Here's what that means for Australian households.

Andrew TonkinLast reviewed 29 July 20265 min read

Short answer

Australia's grid operator AEMO has confirmed that more than 700 MW of new rooftop solar was installed in the three months to June 2026, helping push average wholesale electricity prices in the National Electricity Market to their lowest June quarter level since 2020. For homeowners, the headline is genuinely positive — but wholesale price falls don't automatically translate into lower retail bills, and the story has a few moving parts worth understanding.

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What AEMO actually reported

AEMO's quarterly update — cited by pv magazine Australia — confirmed that rooftop solar across Australia's main grid is now reshaping the market in measurable ways. The 700-plus megawatts added in a single quarter represents continued strong uptake, and the cumulative effect on midday wholesale prices is now significant enough to show up clearly in quarterly averages.

Wholesale prices in the June quarter came in at their lowest average for that time of year since 2020. That is a material shift. For context, it means the electricity being bought and sold on the spot market during daylight hours — when solar is generating — is cheaper than it has been for six years in comparable conditions.

Why cheaper wholesale prices don't always mean a cheaper bill

Retail electricity prices are made up of several components: the wholesale energy cost, network charges (poles and wires), environmental levies, and retailer margins. Wholesale energy is roughly 30–40% of what most households pay. So even a meaningful fall in wholesale costs can be partially or fully absorbed by rises in the other components — particularly network charges, which have been trending upward in several states.

This isn't a reason to be pessimistic. It is a reason to read your electricity bill carefully and understand which components are moving. Households on time-of-use tariffs may benefit more directly from low midday wholesale prices, particularly if they have solar and can shift discretionary loads — dishwashers, pool pumps, EV charging — into sunny hours.

The duck curve: a growing consideration for solar owners

The more rooftop solar that goes onto Australian roofs, the more pronounced the 'duck curve' becomes — the pattern where midday generation is high and cheap, but demand ramps sharply in the early evening when solar output falls. This is already influencing the value of feed-in tariffs, which in most states have fallen considerably from their peak because midday solar export is now abundant.

For homeowners considering solar today, this means the economics increasingly favour self-consumption over export. Using the power you generate — rather than selling it back at a low feed-in rate and buying evening power at a high rate — is where the financial case is strongest. A battery can extend that self-consumption window into the evening, though whether one stacks up financially depends on your specific usage profile and the cost of the system.

What this means if you're still weighing up solar

If you've been sitting on the fence about rooftop solar, this AEMO data reinforces a few things. First, the technology is proven at scale — over 700 MW added in a single quarter tells you supply chains, installation capacity and product quality are all in reasonable shape. Second, the financial case for solar continues to rest primarily on avoiding grid electricity purchase, not on earning high export rates.

The direction of travel on wholesale prices is broadly supportive of the energy transition, which may in turn support policy stability around rebate programs. That said, individual rebate values and eligibility rules change regularly, and the discount on solar installations through federal and state programs steps down over time — so timing still matters. YSA works through all of this on each household's behalf, at no cost, so you're not left reading the fine print alone.

The bigger picture for existing solar owners

If you already have solar, this data is largely good news. A healthier wholesale market — with prices moderated by abundant renewable generation — is more stable and less prone to the extreme price spikes that have at times pushed retail costs higher. There is a separate story, covered elsewhere this week, about diesel-fuelled price spikes during extreme weather events, which highlights that the transition isn't perfectly smooth. But the quarterly trend is clearly moving in the right direction.

Existing owners should also keep an eye on their feed-in tariff offers at contract renewal time. As midday wholesale prices fall further, some retailers may reduce the rates they offer for solar exports. Reviewing your tariff structure periodically — and considering whether a battery makes sense to capture more of your own generation — is worthwhile. YSA can run that analysis against your actual bills if you'd like a second opinion.

Rooftop solar is driving wholesale power prices down — what it means for homeowners

Short answer

What AEMO actually reported

Why cheaper wholesale prices don't always mean a cheaper bill

The duck curve: a growing consideration for solar owners

What this means if you're still weighing up solar

The bigger picture for existing solar owners

Primary references used for this guide.

Will lower wholesale electricity prices reduce my power bill?

Does this news change the case for adding a home battery?

Is now a good time to install solar given the changing market?

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